AXA POSTDOCTORAL FELLOWSHIP
Ursulla Mello has been awarded an AXA post-doctoral fellowship for two years, in order to support her project "Public Policies for Tackling Inequality" at the Fundació d’Economia Analítica and IAE-CSIC. She will study how governmental policy could reduce inequality in access to higher education. The AXA Fellowship is a funding scheme aiming at supporting young promising researchers on a priority topic aligned with AXA and the Society. This support should be transformative for the researcher and the advancement of her research field.
Aggregation and acquisition of information in markets: positive and normative aspects
PI: Jordi Brandts and Xavier Vives
IESE and the Fundació d’Economia Analíta have signed a collaboration agreement for the development of research on positive and regulatory aspects of the aggregation and acquisition of information in markets. The aim of the project is to analyze the incentives of economic agents to acquire information when subsequently they have to compete and trade in the market, analyze information acquisition and trading strategies, and the welfare impact on all market participants. The welfare analysis will follow in order to prescribe policy measures. The project aims to contrast the predictions of the theoretical models with experimental evidence in simplified scenarios. In particular, it would aim to validate in the laboratory the derived behavior taxonomy obtained in the theoretical analysis. The results of the research will serve as a basis for the publication of articles on this subject.
Development of indicators of economic, political and economic policy risk, with a global perspective, based on textual analysis, through the use of "machine learning" techniques
PI: Hannes Mueller
Banco de España
Political risks are key problem for developing countries and has recently also affected countries in Europe indirectly through forced migration and directly through political challenges to their political order. This has triggered several initiatives in the international donor community that aim at reducing State fragility. The Covid-19 crisis is bound to re-enforce these problems in the mid-term. In the social sciences, research on fragility has long received a lot of attention and, most recently, the issue has also been taken up by researchers outside the social science and, specifically, in machine learning.
This project has three objectives:
1.- Use the developed tools in Mueller and Rauh (2018, 2019) on the full text of millions of newspaper articles that are updated constantly to provide monthly updates of political risk to the Banco de España (BdE) and other public actors and interested researchers.
2.- Tailor the index to needs of the BdE by developing and providing additional forecasts of political and economic risks.
3.- Evaluate the ability of the framework to provide true out-of-sample forecasts.
In relation to this project, the web page https://conflictforecast.org/, has been created with the aim of helping preventive efforts and make the method accessible to a wider audience through state-of-the-art data visualization tools, as well as to make forecasts available to professionals and research teams from all over the world.